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Tuesday Evening, September 2, 2003
Stock indexes scored solid gains on heavy
volume as traders returned to Wall Street after summer
vacations. The day started out with modest gains, which
quickly turned into losses after a stronger than expected
August ISM manufacturing number was reported 30 minutes into
the session. The dip was shallow and short-lived and the
indexes rebounded in two waves and were near their best levels
of the day by early afternoon. When influential tech analyst
Dan Niles made some positive comments about IBM around two
hours before the close it caused a near buying panic into the
final bell.
The Nasdaq advanced by 31.03 points, and
with its gain of 1.71 percent, was the day's best performer.
It closed at a 17-month high. The S&P 500 finally broke
through resistance and finished 13.98 points, or 1.39 percent,
higher. The Dow powered to a 14-month high when it rose by
107.45 points. Its gain of 1.14 percent, while the smallest of
the day, was still respectable.
The internals couldn't have been better,
with breath and volume readings exactly where you'd want to
see them on a day like this. NYSE winners outnumbered losers
2,380 to 908, while Nasdaq advancers topped decliners 2,249 to
998. Volume was on the low side, but picked up noticeably
during the late ramp up in stocks. NYSE trade expanded by 53
percent to 1.44 billion shares, in what was the busiest
session in almost a month. Nasdaq volume climbed by 46 percent
to 1.77 billion shares. Up volume was 5.10 times heavier than
down volume on the NYSE and 3.63 times heavier on the Nasdaq.
The number of new highs jumped by 300 to 838, while new lows
grew by two to 12.
As Wall Street racks up days like this, it
continues to feel more and more like a new secular (long-term)
bull market is unfolding. Technically, a cyclical (short-term)
bull market occurs any time one or more of the major indexes
climbs by at least 20 percent. They can occur within the
framework of a long-term bear market, as traders bid up stocks
in anticipation of a turn around in the economy. But until
there is an actual pick-up in business, most of those cyclical
bull markets end up running out of gas quickly.
The Nasdaq Composite made its primary low
for the bear market at 1,108.49 on October 10 of last year and
has climbed by 66 percent since then. With quality stocks
breaking out and new highs swamping new lows, there is no
reason to believe that this run is over. We plan to continue
to trade it as bulls, with one or two bullishly-biased
straddles or strangles thrown in. If the indexes start to sell
off on rising volume, we will quickly become more defensive.
One or two ugly days can be weathered during strong bullish
periods like this, but if there were three or four over a
pretty short period of time, it would be a sign that the big
players were heading for the exits.
The Chinese Internet stocks look interesting
again after the explosive gains racked up today by the three
star players, NTES, SINA and SOHU. The leader, NTES, shot up
by 6.30 points to a new all-time high at 57.30 today. SOHU
rose by 4.55 points, or 15.21 percent, to 34.47 during the
wild outing. The most interesting chart among the three
belongs to SINA, which advanced by 3.26 points to 34.47.
Today's move in SINA occurred after it had
consolidated near 30 for around three weeks, with the last few
days spent inside a tight range on contracting volume. Many
stocks have exploded higher out of a chart pattern like that
during bullish market periods in the past. We opened a long
strangle late today by purchasing some of SINA's December 35
calls and an equal number of its December 30 puts. We are not
going to officially track this one as a pick, but we will
comment on it from time to time if the stock makes some large
moves. If it settles down into a trading range again, we'll
sell both sides of the strangle at a small loss within a
couple of weeks.
As long as the market remains healthy, we
would still like several of our recent picks for new money. We
purchased calls in Vital Images (VTAL) today for that
company's October earnings. The stock opened higher, but then
pulled back and spent most of the middle part of the session
trading fractionally lower. It settled 7 cents higher at
23.10. This is one of those high relative strength stocks that
has been in favor during the rally and, despite its poor
performance today, we like it here for new money.
Yahoo (YHOO) also remains attractive for new
money after it climbed by 0.80 to 34.19 today. Volume picked
up by 68 percent to 13.6 million shares, in what was the
busiest session in two weeks. YHOO will report earnings on
October 8. With a combination of high fundamental and
technical rankings, it could make additional gains before that
event if the market cooperates.
Comtech Telecommunications (CMTL) shot up by
better than 2 points to a new high at 26.50 in the opening
minutes on brisk trade. It appeared to be set up for a strong
advance, but there was no follow-through after the initial
impulse. CMTL did hang on to finish 1.54 points higher at
25.85 on volume that was 45 percent heavier than average. The
stock has done quite well since management raised guidance on
Tuesday of last week and we think that it can make more
progress between now and earnings in late September. If it
bounces tomorrow and the bid on the calls reaches the target
price, we would want to sell half of them to lock in a free
trade.
American Pharmaceutical Partners (APPX) will
split 3-for-2 after the market closes tonight. It recouped
half of Friday's loss when it rose by 1.67 points to 49.34. We
took profits on the trade today as planned.
We're glad that we elected to hang on to the
remaining calls in j2 Global Communications (JCOM) after that
company split its stock 2-for-1 over the long weekend. Traders
couldn't seem to get enough of JCOM today at its new adjusted
price. They gapped it open to the upside and then chased it
throughout the session. It settled 6.98 points, or 22.34
percent, higher at 38.23. That works out to a pre-split gain
of almost 14 points, something that you rarely see any more.
We are looking to take the rest of our profits here.
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